Applied mathematics, climate modeling, and theoretical ecology...

I am driven by questions around forecasting earth and environmental systems, using tools from dynamical system theory, statistics, and machine learning. I am currently exploring research topics around spatial distributions of ecological populations, tipping and extreme events, and uncertainty quantification and machine learning surrogates.

Transients

In systems with more than one stable state, changes between regimes can occur quickly when a “tipping point” is reached. However, these transitions may not always be so clear, especially when considering stochastic disturbances. Long transients can occur when population dynamics dramatically slow around a bifurcation point, even after the point is passed. In this case, common observational data on the behavior of a system in a transient state is virtually identical to the behavior of a system in a stable state; it can be incredibly difficult to determine which cases it is. This has direct implications for management, as management strategies can vary between the two cases. I am currently researching when we can determine if a system is trapped in a long transient state versus a stable state, specifically using the information gained after a disturbance.

Coral Systems

Coral reefs are a key in maintaining ecological diversity, however, in part due to natural disasters such as hurricanes, bleaching events, and large-scale predation like the crown-of-thorn starfish outbreaks, many coral systems are quite degraded. As patchy reef systems become more common, the size, clustering, or overall connectivity of these patches play a key role in overall understanding, so I am currently working towards improving understanding of persistence of coral reefs, using a spatial framework to model connectivity and disturbances.

Publications:

Submitted & In Revision

  • Paige, J., Caldwell, P., Beydoun, H., Hannah, W., Rebassoo, F., Mahfouz, N., Keen, N., Elsaesser, G., Bertagna, L., Bogenschutz, P., Collins, G., Donahue, A., Golaz, J.-C., Guba, O., Hillman, B., Lee, J., Lin, W., Ma, H.-Y., Salinger, A., Shand, L., Terai, C., & Wagman, B. “Machine Learning for Optimized Tuning of the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM).” In revision for the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES). Preprint: essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.15006793/v3

Publications

  • Paige, J., Patterson, D., & Hastings, A. (2026). “Towards a unified framework for multiple stable states in ecological systems.” Journal of the Royal Society Interface, in press.
  • Balstad LJ, Brennan J, ... Paige, J. ... et al. (2026). “Eight quick tips for data-model integration in ecology.” PLOS Computational Biology 22(7): e1014524. doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014524
  • Bhaskar, D., MacDonald, K., Thomas, D., Zhao, S., You, K., Paige, J., Aizenbud, Y., Adelstein, I., & Krishnaswamy, S. (2022). “Diffusion-based methods for estimating curvature in data.” ICLR 2022 Workshop on Geometrical and Topological Representation Learning. openreview.net/pdf
  • Renninger, K. A., Elias, Ruth. C., Kamiya, M. J., Paige, J. N., & Youngblood, R. A. (2024). “PD supporting CS and math integration: implications of teacher interest and confidence for workshop design.” Computer Science Education, 35(1), 93–122. doi.org/10.1080/08993408.2024.2433334

Technical Reports

  • Davis, Diana et al. “Assessing Congressional Districting in Maine and New Hampshire.” (2020). arXiv e-print. arXiv:2011.06555v1.
  • Paige, Jennifer Nicole. (2020). “Using Differential Forms to Find Symmetries in the Noh Problem for an Ideal Gas in a Spherical System” [White paper]. Los Alamos National Laboratory. LA-UR-20-20859.

Presentations & Workshops:

Invited Talks & Seminars

  • Upcoming: Paige, J. et al. “Machine learning for optimal tuning of the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM).” American Geophysical Union (AGU) Annual Meeting, San Francisco, Dec. 2026.
  • Upcoming: Paige, J. et al. “Unifying Multiple Stable States in Ecological Systems.” American Geophysical Union (AGU) Annual Meeting, San Francisco, Dec. 2026.
  • Paige, J., Greiner, A., Hastings, A. “A spatial understanding of coral dynamics with bistability.” Invited speaker for Society of Mathematical Biology (SMB) Annual Meeting, Graz, Vienna, 16 Jul. 2026.
  • Paige, J., Greiner, A., Hastings, A. “Using networks to model complexity in marine ecological systems.” University of Iowa Mathematical Biology Seminar, 4 May 2026.
  • Paige, J., Hastings, A. “A spatial understanding of coral dynamics under multiple stressors.” Invited speaker at Joint Mathematics Meeting (JMM), Seattle Convention Center, 8 Jan. 2025.
  • Paige, J. et al. “Machine learning for optimal tuning of the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM).” Student Run Research Seminar, University of California, Davis, 7 May 2025.

Contributed Talks

  • Paige, J., Greiner, A., Hastings, A. “A spatial understanding of coral dynamics with bistability.” Contributed speaker for Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) Annual Meeting, Cleveland, Ohio, 8 Jul. 2026.
  • Paige, J. et al. “Machine learning for optimal tuning of the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM).” Contributed speaker at SIAM Northern and Central California Sectional Conference, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 27 Oct. 2025.
  • Paige, J. “A spatial understanding of coral dynamics under multiple stressors.” Sustainable Oceans Annual Symposium, University of California, Davis, 4 Oct. 2024.
  • Paige, J., MacDonald, K., Thomas, D., Zhao, S. “Towards robust curvature computation in point clouds.” University of Connecticut’s REU Vir(tu)al Conference. 29 Jul. 2021.

Workshops & Schools

  • Simons Laufer Mathematical Institute Mathematics of Sea Ice and Polar Ecosystems Summer School student, Fairbanks, Alaska, Jun. 2025.
  • Santa Fe Institute: Complexity Summer School student, Sète, France, Oct. 2024.
  • Lead co-organizer for The Future of California Fisheries: Range Shifts and a Changing Ocean workshop, University of California, Davis, 7 Jun. 2024.
  • Host of Coastal and Marine Sciences Institute Salon with Dr. Ariel Greiner, 30 Jan. 2026.
  • Invited participant at Geometric and Topological Methods in Data Science Conference, ICERM, Dec. 2021.

Posters

  • Paige, J. et al. “Machine learning for the optimized tuning of the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM).” Poster at Livermore National Laboratory, 31 Jul. 2025.
  • Paige, J. et al. “Machine learning for the optimized tuning of the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM).” Poster at Computational Sciences Graduate Fellowship Annual Review, 16 Jul. 2025.
  • Paige, J. & Hastings, A. “A spatial understanding of coral dynamics under multiple stressors.” Poster at Computational Sciences Graduate Fellowship Annual Review, 16 Jul. 2024.

News

NSF Sustainable Oceans Internship: New Zealand!

My summer internship at the Cawthron Institute studying dispersal

NSF Sustainable Oceans Field Trip!

A roadtrip up the coast of California to meet stakeholders